Interesting times, isn’t it?

It’s an interesting time in the rural property market right now. It’s also an interesting time for the livestock market, for interest rates, politically and in terms of agriculture’s profitability.

It’s an interesting time in the rural property market right now. It’s also an interesting time for the livestock market, for interest rates, politically and in terms of agriculture’s profitability. 

Remember only a few months ago at the beginning of Autumn? We had lower than average rainfall, most were feeding stock and prices were lower than average. At the same time interest rates remained higher than average. The election was done, Labor in and so was Trump.

Now, as we creep towards the end of Winter things are shifting; farmers are still feeding but stock prices are well above average (prices of heavy lambs have been selling at numerous locations for more than $400/head and mutton and sucker lamb supplies are generally down due to the spoor start to the season), interest rates remain on hold (we’re all waiting for the next RBA decision due on the 12th August, hopefully it’s a cut) and it’s rained. 

When I speak with agricultural benchmarking specialist with Agrista, John Francis, he uses a word better than ‘interesting’.

“It’s a dynamic time,” he says. Nuanced. Active. Ever changing.

He will be one of four panel members taking to the stage at the Flemings Rural ‘Harvesting Opportunity’ event to be held on 4th September 2025 at Bulla Creek Brewery just outside of Young. John will be joined by Nick Crundall of Market Check, Sproutag’s Riverina based Angus Howard and local farmer Samantha Flanery. 

This event is designed to bring an expert panel to our local community – educating you on, markets in the current environment, providing strategies for managing the season ahead, insights into rural finance, and tips on building a resilient and profitable agricultural enterprise.⁠

It’s also an occasion to step out of your farming or ag business and join other locals who’re riding this bullishly ‘dynamic’ scenario. 

Within Agrista, John Francis manages over $3.6 billion in farmland assets through data and profitability-based benchmarking groups that include both corporate and family farmers. 

This is his take on the state of play at the moment in relation to the rural property market;

• In the last two years the value of farming assets has dropped. 

• Everything is tight. Commodity prices. Interest rates and inflationary pressure.

• This comes after a long period of booming land values and low interest rates. 

• People have been left exposed. 

• Liquidation is necessary for some after aggressive periods of growth. 

• This is where the opportunity lies. 

Also, agriculture generally is slow to move, so expect this to be a slow burn. 

Director of Flemings Rural, Richie Fleming, agrees there’s still opportunity in this market, it just looks different to a couple of years ago. 

“Inquiry hasn’t stopped, but it’s more measured. The people circling now are looking for value, for productivity, and for land that fits their strategy. That shift presents a real opportunity – for both buyers and sellers – if you know where to look and how to act.”

My ears prick up at all of this because as a farmer (who does writing and podcasting on the side) our business has borrowed money to buy neighbouring blocks in the last five years and the interest repayments are really hurting. So fill me in…..

“There’s still stacks of opportunity,” says John.

“The people who I see growing in value are the ones that never let an opportunity go by. They are always knocking on doors. Always in contact with agents. Always working out where the market is. Dropping in for cups of tea with the neighbour.”

Good. People are watching. Haven’t had a visit from the neighbour yet though. 

“I think the opportunity is where there have been some aggressive purchases of land and some of those aggressive purchases will be liquidating because effectively, they can’t afford the cash they are bleeding,” he continues. 

Oh yep, that’s me too. In the last month we have sold 1 x tractor, 1 x old truck and 1 x disc seeder. 

Here’s the maths behind it as explained by John. 

“To give you some context; if I’m 40% leveraged at 7% I need a 2.8% operating return just to meet my interest repayments. Our average return for grazing farms is 1.1% (that’s what was in the database at the time we spoke) which means 50% of people who aren’t meeting their interest repayments – so at some point those people may choose to liquidate assets rather than bleeding equity,” he says. 

“The real opportunity is knowing your business, knowing these numbers that I am talking about, really understanding what you can afford.”

It’s this kind of practical insight that Flemings Rural hopes to bring to the forefront at their upcoming event, Harvesting Opportunity, on 4 September.

“We’re really looking forward to having John join us to unpack all of this: both the challenges and the opportunities facing farmers right now. His insights are grounded in real data and real businesses, and it’s a rare chance for our local community to hear directly from someone who works at the sharp end of ag strategy every day,” Richie said. 

We would love for you to join us at Harvesting Opportunity⁠ – Flemings Rural Educational Event 

•  Thursday 4th September⁠, 2:30–5:00pm⁠ at Bulla Creek Brewery, Monteagle.⁠

⁠ RSVP to Claire Roddy [email protected] by 15th of August. ⁠